Chinese Math
http://www.lesechos.fr/info/auto/020306944439-la-chine-devient-officiellement-le-premier-marche-automobile-du-monde.htm
In 2009, the Chinese bought 13.5M vehicles (cars and trucks) boosting the market to a shiny +45% increase year-on-year. Experts (not me) think the yearly growth rate will remain in the 5%/10% range for the foreseable future. Let’s say its 10% (we like to be frightened).
In september 2008, China had 168M vehicles on the road. Adding roughly 1M per month in 2008 plus the 2009 total sales, that makes 168M + 3M + 14M = 185M wheeled stuff in China end 2009.
Let’s assume that the scrap rate is neglectable (uhoh, I’m starting to twist the numbers here), due to relative freshness of the vehicles.
In the next 10 years, the Chinese will add 13,5M x (1,1^11 - 1)/(1,1 - 1) = 250M vehicles which will end up with 185M + 250M = 435M total driveable stuff on the road.
Let’s say that Chinese’s vehicles average fuel efficiency for the next 10 years is 7L/100km. If you have a better idea, tell me.
Let’s say that each vehicle drives an average 15000 miles per year or 24000 kilometers per year. It will then burn 7L x 24000km/100km = 1680L of fuel. The total fuel consumption in China will then be 435M x 1680L = 731 billion L of fuel per year. Just to give you an idea, the worldwide consumption of motor gasoline in 2007 was estimated by the US EIA at 1228 billion L per year. China alone is a +60% increase throughout the next 10 years.
Today’s worldwide refinery capacity stays at 85M barrels per day processed by 670 refineries. It is barely sufficient to supply the equivalent 85M barrels per day consumed by vehicles worldwide.
Now, question: where the hell do you think we’ll find 85M x 60% = 51M barrels per day of crude oil and 670 x 60% = 402 more refineries to process it?
