BEC

Trying to make the numbers work and getting it wrong 99% of the time

Apr 13

Fairy tales

Here’s the most important graph in the recent report issued by the French COR about our beloved and costly retirement system:

As you can see clearly, there’s been a kind of dip in 2009/2010 and people blame the crisis for that. Fine. It’s more that they’ve done nothing for the last 30 years to prevent this from happening, but it’s OK, let’s put it on the crisis.

Problem is that crisis is BEHIND us. Now we have to look at what’s in FRONT of us. Again, as you can see clearly on the graph, experts believe that there will be a quasi stabilization until 2020 and then a slow relentless decline into oblivion. I can assure you that the system will have imploded before that. It is supposed to be at equilibrium by design. I’m cynical, I know.

How can experts predict a stabilization for a system that has always been in decline and in an economical environment that, to say the least, is unstable and ugly?

FAIRY TALES!!!

Experts in France believe in fairy tales and they like to tell French people nice stories about how great this country is and how gifted we are compared to the other dull europeans.

So I add my own version of the story to the graph. It’s the red line. It just shows that if things continue the way they have always been dealt with in this fucking country, the deficit will be around 200 billions euros per year. Eat that.